U.S. abandoning Russia’s neighbors

The administration seems to have moved toward a “Russia only” approach, neglecting and even abandoning other countries in the region.

U.S. abandoning Russia’s neighbors

Russia Restoring Friendly Relations with Georgia

Russia is ready to reestablish partnership with all “constructive political forces” in Georgia, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said

Putin and Medvedev on restoring “friendly relations” with Georgia

Al-Shabaab capture town in Somalia

Somalia’s hardline Islamist Al Shabaab rebels have reportedly captured a southern Somali town that borders with Ethiopia after the pro-government forces vacated, local residents and official said.

Somalia: Al-Shabaab capture border town

Kyrgyzstan Cleaning House

It appears that, after their revolution last month, that left more than 80 people dead and their former president in exile, the Kyrgyz are beginning to investigate the misdeeds of their former ruler.

Kyrgyzstan Opens an Inquiry Into Fuel Sales to a U.S. Base

Interim Kyrgyzstan Government Strips Deposed President’s Immunity

Predictions for 2010

So, I’ve done my predictions for the upcoming decade, but now, I want to make some predictions for the upcoming year.

1. Regime Change in Iran

The protests that started last June after the election never really stopped. I can’t say what the new regime will look like, although I expect it will be more democratic and modern, or if anything permanent will be established by the end of the year. I am sure that Ahmadinejad will not be president by the end of the year.

2. Repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell in the United States

Not only will it be repealed, but without too much fuss. There will obviously be opposition and some public debate, but the repeal will pass congress and become official relatively quickly. Obama has to get on this, eventually. Sure, he has a lot of things on his agenda, but he’ll have to get around to this one some time this year.

3. Federal Election in Canada

There will be another election in Canada before the year is out. If the Conservatives win, they won’t have a majority, it will be the same situation as we have now. The liberals will most likely gain seats and they may possibly win. If the Liberals do win, I still don’t expect that they will have a majority.

Prediction for the 2010s

It seems that we’re coming to the end of another decade. Many websites and blogs are looking back at the previous decade, some are even trying to figure out what to call it. The following is what I think will happen in the next decade, the 10s. None of these predictions are meant to be profound or particularly insightful, they’re just how the future looks from today.

1. Major media shift to the Internet

An example of a not very insightful prediction. We’ve seen the future with Hulu and Youtube. So far, neither of which have any sort of money making scheme. The kinks in the system will get ironed out in the coming decade. Companies will learn how to make money off of media on the internet. Although, at the moment, there doesn’t seem to be any dominant model for newspapers on the internet. The old media will be used less and less. It’s possible that, by the end of the decade, all “television” shows will now be watched on the inernet and television will have to reinvent itself, like radio did in the 50s.

2. Barack Obama will win a second term as President

Currently, the Republican politition with the most support is Sarah Palin. If she were the Republican nominee in 2012, Obama would definitely win. I don’t, however, believe that Sarah Palin will actually win the Republican nomination. She’ll probably run, but she won’t win it. The problem for the Republicans is that they won’t have an opposition to Obama that’s strong or organized enough.

3. More Russian Aggression / Putin Becomes President of Russia Again

The last decade has seen Russia rise from the terrible condition it was in immediately after the Cold War. Once Russia regained some power, it began to exercise it. In the next decade, the country will be slowly gaining more power and pushing the boundaries even more.

At the same time, Vladimir Putin has said that he hasn’t ruled out running for President of Russia again. And now that the president’s term has been extended to 6 years, that gives Putin a possible 12 years to rule (which, of course, could be extended at any time). Of course, despite not being the president, he still yields a lot of power as Prime Minister. I don’t know if he will run for president in 2012 or 2016, but I’m sure he will. I also expect that he will be elected.

Bolivia: Evo Morales Re-elected President

President of Bolivia and ally of Hugo Chavez has been re-elected to the presidency of the country.

The Coming American Empire

The United States does not have an empire, but it is in the beginning phases of attaining one. While the United States does have a lot of influence among other countries, it doesn’t have any direct control over them. It has often not been shy about using its force and has occupied other countries, but, traditionally, any occupation was never meant to be permanent. While the United States still has troops in Germany and Japan, it can’t force any policy decisions on either country. An example is the United State’s decision to invade Iraq. The United States was very upset that the Germans refused to assist in the invasion, but, in the end, could not force Germany to send troops to Iraq. In the current cases of Iraq and Afghanistan, it’s still to be seen what will happen, but the US does have a plan to withdraw troops from Iraq and President Barack Obama has just announced that the US will begin withdrawing troops from Afghanistan in 2011. In the cases of both countries, it doesn’t seem like the Americans have any intention of dominating either country.

Comparisons between the American Empire and the Roman Empire are often made and one significant similarity is that the Romans never intended to create an Empire. Unlike Alexander the Great or Napolean, Roman expansion began with defensive wars. After the Romans defeated a neighbouring enemy, they would occupy their territory, then they would have new neighbours, who they would defeat in war and whose territory they would then occupy. The Romans entered the international scene after the Punic Wars, which left them with all former territories of Carthage.

America, in the same way, has never intended to acquire an empire. America came to it’s current position after the two world wars. Before the world wars, the dominant force in the world was Europe. After the wars, the Europeans were completely devastated and weren’t able to hold their position as world leaders any longer. The Americans, who were not left as devastated by the two world wars, filled the power vacuum.

Whether the United States is truly another Roman Empire will be determined in this century. So far this century, we’ve seen the emergence of rivals on the international stage. Last century, of course, the Soviet Union/Russia was the only real contender. Now, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has recovered and is ready (and seems to be willing) to renew conflict between the two countries. China has also begun extending its power internationally. If the United States wins these conflicts, the result will not be the complete annihilation or occupation of the other countries, rather that America’s sphere of influence will be expanded and Russia and China will lose theirs. At the same time, America will increase its power over the areas it controls and it will become obvious that America is on the road to empire.

NATO Pledges 7000 Troops to Afghanistan

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen

Last Tuesday, US President Barack Obama announced that the US would be sending 30 000 more troops to Afghanistan, and last Friday, NATO’s Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced that NATO would be sending 7000 more. These numbers, however, don’t include the contributions of Germany or France, who are waiting until the meeting in January before they make any decisions.

Putin Not Going Anywhere Anytime Soon

Surprising no one, Vladimir Putin has announced that he would consider running for the Presidency of Russia again. He stepped down in 2008, after eight years, because he was only allowed to remain in office for a maximum of two terms. However, before stepping down, he was elected Prime Minister, so he never left the spotlight. Later, in 2008, the President’s term was extended to six years. Speculation, at the time, was that Putin would be running for president, some time in the future.

Putin considers another run for presidency